Final demand: IREInformation based on provisional data as of January 2023
Decreased consumption in the industrial sectors and increased consumption in services.
The situation caused by the war in Ukraine had an impact on the evolution of the IRE during 2022, with the rise in prices of many raw materials and high inflation, while the end of restrictions has led to an improvement in services and other sectors.
The overall IRE in 2022 was 6.1 % lower than in the previous year; this is a larger decline than the increase in 2021, and therefore it does not compensate for the decline of -7.4 % experienced in 2020. The index stands at 112.9, which is lower than the figure for 2020, 115.2.
The downturn is entirely caused by the industrial component. The situation has developed as follows:
- Industrial activities decreased by 10.3 %, showing a sharp decline since August.
- The services sector shows a positive impact, with an increase of 1.9 %.
- The grouping of other sectors of activity has also increased, with a change of 2.2 % compared to the previous year, which is the largest increase..
Breakdown of the General IRE
Annual evolution of the variation in gross IRE
Temperatures have had a positive impact on the evolution of the index, adding 1.8 percentage points to it. By major groupings, the most significant impact has occurred in other sectors, where temperatures added 2.9 points to the evolution.
In 2022, the composition of the working calendar had a negative impact, while the evolution of temperatures had a positive impact on the evolution of the IRE, with the effect of temperature being much stronger.
Temperatures had a positive impact on the evolution of the IRE, adding 1.8 percentage points to it, especially in July, when temperature added 5.2 percentage points, while in May, June, and August it added more than 3 percentage points, respectively, to the variation of this index. By major groupings, the most significant impact concerned other sectors of activity, where temperatures added 2.9 points to the evolution of the index, followed by the services sector, where temperatures made a positive contribution of 1.6 points, and finally industry, which contributed 1.4 %.
IRE: Breakdown of the variation in 2022
The monthly evolution of the adjusted index has been negative since the first months of the year, but this trend became more pronounced in March when the war in Ukraine broke out and since August when the economic slowdown was greater.
The monthly evolution of the adjusted index has been marked by the war and the slowdown in the economy, which has been more acute since August due to the high global inflation, which has led the major banks to adopt measures to contain it. It is worth noting that the adjusted IRE has been negative since the beginning of the year, reaching double-digit variations since August due to the slowdown in the economy. December saw a negative variation of 13 %, which is the lowest after that recorded in the year of the pandemic.
Regarding the monthly trend of the adjusted index for the two main sector groupings (industry and services), it is important to highlight that while all sectors experienced a more significant decline since August, the industrial sector has been notably affected since the latter months of the year due to the scarcity of raw materials and high energy prices. On the other hand, the services sector, which began its recovery later in the previous year, continues its rebound in the first half of the year. This revival can be attributed to the easing of restrictions, particularly impacting sectors that involve higher levels of personal interaction.
Monthly evolution of the variation in adjusted IRE
In terms of the trend, it should be noted that 2021 began with the same downward trend as at the end of 2020, but from March onwards, the trend of the index reached a turning point towards positive values in the first months of summer. From this moment on, following a more positive evolution of the industry, the trend takes an upward direction, although maintaining negative variation rates in comparison with the year 2019. At the beginning of 2022, the trend saw a stabilisation of growth rates. However, a new downward trend began coinciding with the start of the war, which turned negative from May onwards.
The industry sector maintained its positive trend in the first two months of the year, but the conflict in Ukraine further strained the price crisis and led to a downward trend in the last quarter, with the lowest variation rates recorded since the beginning of the IRE.
The services sector, which initiated its recovery later, beginning with the relaxation of pandemic control measures, continued the upward trend registered in 2021 until the start of the current year. The sector saw the most substantial variation rates ever recorded within this period, but from that point onward,, the trend reversed course. Despite this decline, the services sector ended the year with a slight positive rate, thanks to the preceding period of growth.
Monthly evolution of the change in trend of the adjusted IRE
At the peak hour of the day of maximum hourly demand of the year, which this year occurred in summer, the residential sector accounted for 30 % of consumption, while industrial IRE consumption accounted for 21 %, large services (IRE) for 12 %, and small commerce and services for 24 %.
At the peak hour of the day of maximum hourly demand of the year, the residential sector accounted for 30 % of consumption, while the industry sector of the IRE accounted for 21 % of consumption, the large services sector (IRE) stood at 12 %, and small businesses and services stood at 24 %. Throughout the peak day, the greatest share of the industrial sectors was in the early hours of the morning, but it is especially between 5 and 6 a.m. that it reaches a maximum share of electricity demand of around 30 %, while for large services, the most important time period is between 7 a.m. and 9 p.m., with shares of consumption ranging between 11 and 12 %.