Variation and components

Economic activity, electricity demand, and GDP have all shown positive growth.

This year, economic activity, electricity demand, and GDP have all shown positive growth. GDP grew slightly more than in the previous year, while electricity demand increased for the first time in two years. The relationship between demand and economic activity has resulted in a positive elasticity of 0.5 between adjusted demand variation and GDP, a figure similar to those recorded in 2020 and 2021.

In any case, the evolution of elasticity between adjusted electricity demand and GDP maintains a low ratio, as it has shown in recent years: elasticity of -0.2 in the 2018-2022 period, -0.4 in the 2019-2023 period, and 0 in the 2020-2024 period. In other words, in recent years, the relationship between these variables has been practically non-existent, as has become evident following the economic recovery that took place after the 2009 crisis.

Annual evolution of the variation in demand at power station busbars

The year 2024 was slightly milder in winter and cooler in summer compared to 2023, resulting in a negative temperature contribution of 0.8 percentage points to national demand growth.

After factoring in the influence of working patterns and temperatures, the result is a positive variation of 1.4% with respect to the previous year in Spain, while on the peninsula, the variation was 1.5%.

Annual evolution of the components of the variation in electricity demand

Year-on-year variation %

Monthly evolution of the components of the variation in electricity demand

2024 was, on average, slightly less warm than 2023

From the point of view of temperature influence on demand, the year 2024 was milder in winter and cooler in summer than 2023 compared to the previous year, with 16.1% fewer heating degree days and 15.9% fewer cooling degree days.

Monthly evolution of maximum temperatures

Compared to the historical average, the year 2024 recorded warmer temperatures in summer and milder temperatures in winter. On the peninsula, daytime temperatures with a cooling effect (cooling degree days) were 36.0% lower than average values, and daytime temperatures with a heating effect (heating degree days) were 30.7% higher than average values for the period. In other words, over the year as a whole, the number of days with warmer than average temperatures was higher.

Evolution of maximum daily temperatures compared to the historical average

This means that over the course of 2024, 46.2% of days had temperatures well above the historical average temperature, which is lower than the 55.7% of the previous year. Such days were concentrated mainly between January to February, April, July to August, and October, with July standing out among the summer months and October among the winter months. On the other hand, only 3.3% of days in the year had temperatures below the historical average (down from 6.0% the previous year), and these days were mainly concentrated in March, June, October, and December.

Rolling adjusted demand showed an upward trend until October, after which it declined, possibly influenced by the DANA storm that affected several Spanish provinces. Monthly adjusted demand rose in January and February before gradually decreasing, reaching its lowest point in July. It then reversed direction in August, peaking before declining again until November, a month partially impacted by the DANA storm, before beginning to recover in December. Looking ahead, a potential worsening of current geopolitical tensions and a possible increase in import tariffs by the new U.S. Administration could lead to a slowdown in economic activity and a rise in inflation, which may impact electricity demand.

Monthly variation in adjusted demand in 2024