Variation and components

When compared to changes in economic activity, electricity demand and GDP have evolved in opposite directions, as was the case last year, as well as in 2019.

When compared to changes in economic activity, electricity demand and GDP have evolved in opposite directions. The GDP has maintained a similar variation to that of last year, while demand has once again recorded negative values, as was the case in 2019. The divergent change between demand and economic activity has given rise to a negative elasticity of 1.1 between the variation in adjusted demand and GDP; the situation is similar to that which occurred last year, and also in 2019 and 2014. The value for 2023 is much closer to the value seen in 2019.

In any case, the change in elasticity between electricity demand and GDP maintains a low ratio, as it has shown in recent years: elasticity of 0.1 in the period 2017-2021 and -0.2 in the period 2018-2023. In other words, in recent years, the relationship between these variables has been practically non-existent, as has become evident following the economic recovery that took place after the 2009 crisis.

Annual evolution of the variation in demand at power station busbars

2023 was slightly colder in the winter, and less warm in the summer, than 2022, which resulted in a negative contribution of 0.4 percentage points to the growth in domestic demand.

After factoring in the influence of working patterns and temperatures, the result is a negative variation of 1.9 % with respect to the previous year in Spain, while on the mainland, the variation was -2.1 %, both values lower than those recorded in 2022 and in 2019.

Annual evolution of the components of the variation in electricity demand

Year-on-year variation %

Monthly evolution of the components of the variation in electricity demand

2023 was, on average, slightly less warm than 2022, which was the warmest year on record

Taking the influence of temperatures into account, 2023 was warmer in winter and cooler in summer than in 2022, with 3.4 % fewer heating degree days and 10.1 % fewer cooling degree days.

Monthly evolution of maximum temperatures

When comparing 2023 as a whole with the historical average, this year shows warmer temperatures in summer and milder temperatures in winter. At the peninsular level, the degree days with a cold effect were 23.8 % lower than the average values and the degree days with a hot effect were 55.4 % higher than the average values for the period considered. In other words, over the year as a whole, the number of days with warmer than average temperatures was higher.

Evolution of maximum daily temperatures compared to historical average

This means that over the course of 2023, 55.7 % of days had temperatures well above the historical average temperature, which is lower than the 62.6 % of the previous year. Such days were concentrated mainly between March to April, July to August, and October to November, with August standing out among the summer months and October among the winter months. On the other hand, only 6.0 % of days in the year had temperatures below the historical average (slightly above the previous year’s 5.5 %), and these days were mainly concentrated in January, February, August and September.

During the first half of the year, the demand for electricity, although with negative fluctuations, experienced ups and downs, reaching the lowest value in June; before starting to make a recovery, marking an upward trend. However, in September, the conflict in the Middle East caused demand to fall slightly, later recovering again. The outlook for the future, considering the extended conflict in Yemen and the attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal, may lead to further price increases and delayed deliveries of all types of goods, straining the supply chain, which may impact electricity demand.

Monthly variation in adjusted demand in 2023