Variation and componentsInformation based on provisional data as of January 2023
When compared to the evolution of economic activity, electricity demand and GDP have evolved in opposite directions, as was the case in 2019 and 2014.
When compared to the evolution of economic activity, electricity demand and GDP have evolved in opposite directions. The GDP has maintained a similar variation to that of last year, while demand has once again recorded negative values, as was the case in 2019. The divergent evolution between demand and economic activity has given rise to a negative elasticity of 0.5 between the variation in adjusted demand and GDP, a situation that has not occurred since 2019 and, before that, since 2014.
In any case, the evolution of the elasticity between electricity demand and GDP maintains a low ratio, as it has shown in recent years: an elasticity of 0.1 in the period 2017-2021 and -0.1 in the period 2018-2022. In other words, in recent years, the relationship between these variables has been practically non-existent, as has become evident following the economic recovery that took place after the 2009 crisis.
Annual evolution of the variation in demand at power station busbars
The year 2022 has been less cold in winter and warmer in summer than 2021, which resulted in a positive contribution of 0.7 percentage points to the growth in demand due to the temperatures.
After factoring in the influence of working patterns and temperatures, the result is a negative variation of 3.3 % with respect to the previous year in Spain, while in the peninsula the variation was -3.9 %, both values lower than those recorded in 2019, although less sharply than those recorded in the year of the pandemic.
Annual evolution of the components of the variation in electricity demand
Year-on-year variation %
Monthly evolution of the components of the variation in electricity demand
2022 is the warmest year in history
In terms of the influence of temperatures on demand, the year 2022 as a whole, compared to the historical average, shows warmer temperatures in the summer and milder temperatures in the winter. On the peninsula, the daytime temperatures with a cooling effect (cooling degree days) have been 21.2 % lower than the average values, and the daytime temperatures with a heating effect (heating degree days) have been 72.9 % higher than the average values for the period. In other words, over the year as a whole, the number of days with warmer than average temperatures was higher.
This means that over the course of 2022, 62.6 % of the days had temperatures well above the historical average temperature. Such days are concentrated mainly from May to August and from October to December, with July standing out among the summer months and October among the winter months. On the other hand, only 5.5 % of the year had temperatures below the historical average, and these days were mainly concentrated in March and April.
Compared to the previous year, 2022 was less cold in winter and warmer in summer, with 15.8 % fewer cooling degree days and 49.8 % more heating degree days. The combined impact of these effects results in a positive contribution of 0.8 percentage points to demand growth as a result of the increased temperatures.
Monthly evolution of maximum temperatures
Evolution of maximum daily temperatures compared to historical average
Source: AEMET and own work.
Although the year began with a drop in demand due to the sixth wave of the Omicron variant, it seemed that the trend was towards recovery, despite the disruptions in the supply chain and the increase in the price of raw materials due to geopolitical tensions. However, the invasion of Ukraine constituted a major disruption, which further strained the raw materials market and caused demand to stagnate in negative trends until June, when the increase in international tourism eased this decline to values below 1 %. From August onwards, though, strong inflation and cost-cutting measures have pushed demand into a clear downward trend, which seems to show no signs of recovering as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
Monthly variation in adjusted demand in 2022