Variation and components

Compared to the evolution of economic activity, both the electricity demand and GDP showed a positive variation, although the variation of GDP was stronger than that of electricity demand, which has given way to an elasticity between both magnitudes of 0.5.

Compared to the evolution of economic activity, both the electricity demand and GDP showed a positive variation, although the variation of GDP was stronger than that of electricity demand. In 2020, the opposite was the case, with GDP falling more sharply than demand. This joint variation gave rise to an elasticity between both magnitudes of 0.5. That is, activity measured through GDP was growing twice as much as electricity demand, this being the second consecutive year in which this situation occurred, showing that, both in the fall of 2020 and in the subsequent rebound, both magnitudes maintained an even behaviour.

In any case, the evolution of the elasticity relationship between electricity demand and GDP maintains a low rate, as it has shown in recent years: elasticity of 0.1 in the period 2017-2021. In other words, in recent years the relationship between these variables has been practically negligible, as has become evident following the economic recovery that occurred after the 2009 crisis.

Annual variation of the peninsular electricity demand and Spanish GDP

2021 was colder in winter and not as hot in summer compared to 2020, resulting in temperatures having a slightly negative impact of -0.04 percentage points on demand growth

After having factored in the influence of seasonal and working patterns, although practically nil regarding temperature, the result is a positive variation of 2.4 % with respect to the previous year, which contrasts with the 5 % decrease recorded the previous year, showing a certain recovery in 2021, although without reaching the levels seen prior to the start of the pandemic.

Components of the annual variation in peninsular electricity demand

% Previous year variation

Elements associated with the variation in monthly demand on the Spanish peninsula

Increased number of days with warmer temperatures

From the point of view of the influence of temperatures on demand, the whole of 2021 compared to the historical average, showed warmer temperatures in summer and milder temperatures in winter. The daytime temperatures with a cooling effect (Cooling Degree Days) were 6.2 % lower than the average values and the daytime temperatures with a heating effect (Heating Degree Days) were 14.8 % higher than the average values for the period considered. In other words, over the year as a whole, the number of days with warmer than average temperatures was higher.

Thus, in 2021, temperatures were much higher than the historical average temperature on 21 % of the days, which were more concentrated in August for the summer months, and in December for the winter months. On the other hand, on days with temperatures below the historical average, this situation only occurred on 11.7 % of the days in the year and these days were mainly in January and Novembe.

Compared to the previous year, 2021 was colder in winter and not as hot in summer compared to 2020, registering 19.2 % more ‘cold days’ and 13.3 % fewer ‘hot days’. The combined impact of these temperatures resulted in a slightly negative impact of -0.04 percentage points on demand growth.

Monthly evolution of maximum temperatures